HEARD ON THE STREET: China Rate Rise Signals Shift to Slower Growth - WSJ.com

HEARD ON THE STREET: China Rate Rise Signals Shift to Slower Growth - WSJ.com

Wind’s 2010 Top Ten: Bust and Building, Coming and Going : Greentech Media

Wind’s 2010 Top Ten: Bust and Building, Coming and Going : Greentech Media

A Lower-Carbon Route to Replacing Oil - NYTimes.com

A Lower-Carbon Route to Replacing Oil - NYTimes.com

Oil Industry Increases Spending on Search for Energy - WSJ.com

Oil Industry Increases Spending on Search for Energy - WSJ.com

Expert Says $5 Gas En Route - For What It's Worth - Comcast.net

Expert Says $5 Gas En Route - For What It's Worth - Comcast.net

Technical Trading Alerts 12.28.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross; RRC
21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross  JOE PWE
MACD Cross: SWN

BEARISH ALERTS: None.

FACTBOX-Five facts about rare earth elements | Energy & Oil | Reuters

FACTBOX-Five facts about rare earth elements | Energy & Oil | Reuters

Technical Trading Alerts 12.22.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: CF
MACD Cross:  ANR ATPG CNQ CNX DVN ERF FTO PCX PXD VALE XCO XOP

BEARISH ALERTS: None

DOE Crude Oil & Products Inventory Report Analysis 12.22.2010

·         Larger than expected crude inventory draw – Crude oil inventories decreased 5.3 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 3.4 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). Crude oil inventories are now sitting at 340.7 mmbbls, which is 4.0% above last year and 7.6% above the five-year average. 

·         Distillate draw exceed expectations – Inventories of distillates decreased 0.6 mmbbls last week, compared with flat market expectations (per Bloomberg). Distillate inventories are now sitting at 160.7 mmbbls, which is 0.4% below last year, but 17.6% above the five-year average.

·         Gasoline inventory build higher than expected – Gasoline inventories rose 2.4 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 1.5 mmbbls build (per Bloomberg). Inventories of gasoline are now sitting at 217.2 mmbbls, which is 0.4% above last year and 4.8% above the five-year average.        

·         Refinery utilization largely unchanged – Refinery utilization remained largely unchanged last week at 87.7% (was 88.0% the week prior), but remains 7.7% above last year and 1.2% above the five-year average.

Technical Trading Alerts - 12.21.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: MRO
MACD Cross: ACI BHP CRZO CVE DIG FST JRCC NBL SE SM TSO USO WLL
Stochastic Cross: WTI

BEARISH ALERTS: None

Technical Trading Alerts 12.21.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: STO
MACD Cross: CF MOO VLO
Price Is Up > 5% and Volume Is > 200%: CHK
Stochastic Cross: NBR PVA RIG SGY
UP/Down Slope Ratio Reversal: FST NBL TLM

BEARISH ALERTS: None.

Top Picks in Coal - Barrons.com

Top Picks in Coal - Barrons.com

Commodities Likely to earn Their Keep in the Coming Year

From Financial Times http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aa92b884-087d-11e0-80d9-00144feabdc0.html

Technical Trading Alerts 12.17.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: CHK
MACD Cross: CBI XEC
Stochastic Cross: CPX HK PTEN UPL WTI
Up/Down Volume Ratio Reversal: BHP COP CVX FWLT NBR SU

BEARISH ALERTS: None

Weekly DOE Natural Gas Inventory Analysis - 12.16.2010

Withdrawal in line with expectations – The EIA reported a natural gas withdrawal of 164 bcf, right in line with expectations (as per Bloomberg) of 165 bcf. For the comparable week last year, the storage withdrawal was 185 bcf with the five-year average withdrawal at 153 bcf.

Storage levels tracking 2009 – The 164 bcf withdrawal this week puts us only 35 bcf below storage levels set in late December 2009. Total storage levels now sit at 3,561 bcf, still well above the five-year average of 3,240 bcf.

Warmer weather forecast – The National Weather Service is predicting milder temperatures for key consuming regions of the United States.

Oil Futures Increase After Crude Inventories Drop the Most in Eight Years - Bloomberg

Oil Futures Increase After Crude Inventories Drop the Most in Eight Years - Bloomberg

Fertilizer Inventory Analysis 12.15.10

Both PotashCorp and Agrium provided monthly market report updates last evening outlining inventory and pricing data for fertilizer nutrients in North America. While potash and urea inventories increased from October levels, ending inventories for both crop nutrients remained well below historical levels. On the phosphates front, DAP and MAP inventories continued to decline falling significantly below historical levels. Highlights from the report include:

 

Potash:

§  North American ending inventory in November increased by 182,000t from October (an increase of around 13%) however, potash inventory was still down approximately 22% when compared to the five year average.

Urea:

§  North American urea inventories climbed 47,000t from the previous month, but were still approximately 13% below the 5 year average inventory level.

DAP/MAP:

§  DAP/MAP inventories tightened in November dropping 17% from already record lows in October. Inventories were 39% below levels in November 2009, and trail the 5 year average by approximately 50%.

§  DAP inventories made up the bulk of the drop and now sit 57% below the 5 year average, while MAP inventories are 39% below the 5 year average.

Argus Media :: News Story

Gas Surpassing US Coal Power Generation Argus Media :: News Story

Does China Face a 'Peak Coal' Threat? - NYTimes.com

Does China Face a 'Peak Coal' Threat? - NYTimes.com

Technical Trading Alerts 12.14.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: PWE
Stochastic Cross: ANR EOG IOC WTI
Up/Down Ratio Slope Reversal: ATPG DBA

BEARISH ALERTS: None

FT.com / Commodities - Global boom in commodities capex

FT.com / Commodities - Global boom in commodities capex

FT.com / Companies / Mining - Boost for suppliers as miners dig deep

FT.com / Companies / Mining - Boost for suppliers as miners dig deep

Technical Trading alerts 12.13.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


MACD Cross: HP JOYG PWE
Price Is Up >5% & Volume Is >200%: FST GDP
Stochastic Cross: CRK ERF SWN
Up/Down Volume Ratio Reversal: BLL NXY

BEARISH ALERTS


Price Is Down >5% & Volume Is >200%: AMSC

Shale gas supply expected to keep US prices low in 2011 - Oil & Gas Journal

Shale gas supply expected to keep US prices low in 2011 - Oil & Gas Journal

US shale and unconventional activity continues to push rig counts higher

US shale and unconventional activity continues to push rig counts higher

OPEC set for no change despite $90 oil | Energy & Oil | Reuters

OPEC set for no change despite $90 oil | Energy & Oil | Reuters

DOE Natural Gas Storage Analysis 12.09.10

Withdrawal slightly greater than expectations – The EIA reported a natural gas withdrawal of 89 bcf, in line with expectations (as per Bloomberg) for a 85 bcf withdrawal and the five-year average withdrawal of 90 bcf. For the comparable week last year, the EIA reported a withdrawal of 64 bcf. 

Storage levels still near record highs – Total storage now sits at 3,725 bcf, or 1.5% below last year’s levels for the comparable week of 3,781 bcf, and 9.8% above the five-year average of 3,393 bcf.

Estimate surprises – As expected, price movements have largely been related to estimate surprises but the negative correlation is not perfect given other external factors such as weather, which weigh-in.

Technical Trading Alerts 12/08/2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: ATW NXY TS URS XOM

BEARISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: PNY POT
Stochastic Cross: MMR

Oil demand back to pre-recession peaks - WoodMac | Energy & Oil | Reuters

Oil demand back to pre-recession peaks - WoodMac | Energy & Oil | Reuters

Investors Pile Into Commodities - WSJ.com

Investors Pile Into Commodities - WSJ.com

Oil Industry Urged to Transform Approach to Safety - WSJ.com

Oil Industry Urged to Transform Approach to Safety - WSJ.com

FT.com / Companies / Oil & Gas - US independents to buy into shale oil boom

FT.com / Companies / Oil & Gas - US independents to buy into shale oil boom

FT.com / Commodities - Crude oil tipped to bubble over $100 a barrel

FT.com / Commodities - Crude oil tipped to bubble over $100 a barrel

Technical Trading alerts 12.7.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-day Moving avg. Cross: COP DNR SU VALE
MACD  Cross: ATW BBL BP PDE SCCO UPL

BEARISH ALERTS


Stochastic Cross: E REP

EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Summary

• Lowers 2011 world oil demand growth by 10K bpd, to +1.43M bpd y/y; sees US 2011 natural gas production +2%. 
• Expects the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to average about $84 per barrel this winter (October 1 to March 31), more than $6 higher than the average price last winter. Projected WTI prices rise to $89 per barrel by the end of 2011, a $2 per barrel increase from last month's Outlook, as U.S. and global economic conditions improve. EIA's forecast assumes U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) grows 2.7 percent in 2010 and 2.1 percent in 2011, while world real GDP (weighted by oil consumption) grows by 4.0 percent and 3.2 percent, in 2010 and 2011, respectively. 
• Expects regular-grade motor gasoline retail prices to average $2.88 per gallon this winter, 22 cents per gallon higher than last winter. Projected retail diesel fuel prices average $3.14 per gallon this winter, an increase of 35 cents per gallon over last winter, while residential heating oil prices average $3.17 per gallon this winter. In 2011, higher crude oil prices combined with higher refiner margins push annual average prices for motor gasoline and diesel fuel to $3.00 and $3.23 per gallon, respectively. 
• Natural gas working inventories end November 2010 at 3.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), slightly less than last year's record-setting end-of-November level. The projected Henry Hub natural gas spot price averages $4.37 per million Btu (MMBtu) for 2010, a $0.42-per-MMBtu increase over the 2009 average. EIA expects the Henry Hub spot price to average $4.33 per MMBtu in 2011. 
• OPEC crude oil production will increase by 0.3 and 0.4 million bbl/d in 2010 and 2011, respectively, similar to last month's Outlook, to accommodate increasing world oil consumption. Projected non-crude liquids increase by 0.7 million bbl/d in both 2010 and 2011. OPEC surplus capacity should remain close to 5 million bbl/d, compared with 4.3 million in 2009 and 1.5 million in 2008. 
• Non-OPEC Supply will grow by just over 1.0 million bbl/d to an average 51.5 million bbl/d in 2010 - the largest year-over-year increase since 2002. The increase in total non-OPEC supply for the year is the result of higher production in the United States, Brazil, China, and Russia. However, non-OPEC supply falls by 280,000 bbl/d in 2011. The decline in non-OPEC supply in 2011 would be only the third time in the last 15 years that non-OPEC supplies fall year-over-year. 
• Projected total U.S. liquid fuels consumption increases by 320,000 bbl/d (1.7 percent) to 19.09 million bbl/d in 2010, which is about 60,000 bbl/d higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. A year-over-year decline in total liquid fuels consumption averaging 40,000 bbl/d in the first quarter of 2010 was followed by a year-over-year rise averaging 610,000 bbl/d in the second and third quarters, led by increases in motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil consumption.
• Domestic crude oil production, which increased by 410,000 bbl/d in 2009, increases by 140,000 bbl/d in 2010 and then falls by 30,000 bbl/d to 5.47 million bbl/d in 2011. The 2011 forecast includes declines of 50,000 bbl/d and 180,000 bbl/d in Alaska and the Federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM), respectively, and a 190,000-bbl/d increase in lower-48 non-GOM production. Ethanol production, which averaged 710,000 bbl/d in 2009, increases to an average of 860,000 bbl/d in 2010 and 890,000 bbl/d in 2011.  
• This month's Outlook, for the first time, reflects recent changes in the Form EIA-857 monthly natural gas survey methodology in the forecasts for residential and commercial natural gas consumption. The new survey methodology should not significantly change reported total annual consumption volumes. However, EIA expects significant changes in the seasonality of reported residential and commercial sector natural gas consumption from historical reporting norms as the improved reporting on the EIA-857 leads to more accurate monthly reports. For example, first quarter 2011 forecast residential plus commercial consumption is 1.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) lower in this forecast compared with last month's Outlook, while fourth quarter 2011 consumption is 3.8 Bcf/d higher.

Technical Trading alerts 12.6.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: CRK FCX GDP IVN OIL TLM USO
21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: GDP
MACD Cross: BHP DVN ESV JEC RIO TLM

BEARISH ALERTS: None

Technical Trading alerts 12.3.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: CVE DD ERF PETD PTEN XLB
MACD Cross: ATPG CF CVX DBA DNR FST MON MOO NBL NBR NXY OKE
                       PETD PXP RRC TS URS XEC

BEARISH ALERTS: None

Technical Trading alerts 12.2.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: APC CF DOW MUR SHAW XOM
MACD Cross: ACI APA APC BTU CBI CCJ CNQ COP DBC DIG DOW
                       EQT FCX FWLT GDP HES HK HOS HP NFX OIH PVA RIG SE
                       SU TCK VALE VLO XLB XLE XOP

BEARISH ALERTS


21 Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: TOT

Weekly DOE Natural Gas Inventory Analysis - 12.02.2010

Withdrawal slightly greater than expectations – The EIA reported a natural gas withdrawal of 23 bcf, lower than expectations (as per Bloomberg) for a 29 bcf withdrawal but less than the five-year average of a 43 bcf withdrawal. For the comparable week last year, the EIA reported an injection of 2 bcf. 

Storage levels still at record highs – Total storage now sits at 3,814 bcf, or 0.6% below last year’s levels for the comparable week of 3,837 bcf, and 10.0% above the five-year average of 3,467 bcf.

High coal prices shoring up gas prices – Appalachian coal prices surged dramatically yesterday to new 2010 highs, and this coal move is helping to shore up gas prices on the basis of a coal-gas switching in regards to power generation. Coal prices yesterday were up 3%, which is pretty impressive volatility in the normally sedate coal market, resulting in our implicit coal-gas switching price escalating to $4.52 as of last night’s close.

EIA 914 data for September Shows Solid Growth – Total Lower 48 volumes of 66.33bcfpd were up +480mmcfpd (+0.7%) MTM and +5bcfpd (+8.1%) YOY. Onshore Lower 48 volumes of 60.37bcfpd were up +680mmcfpd (+1.1%) MTM and +5.77bcfpd (+10.4%) YOY.

Technical Trading alerts 12.1.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: APD CNQ EMN HOS INT TDW
MACD Cross: APD BEXP COG CVE DD EMN ERF JOYG MRO MUR OIL OIS PX
                        PXD SFY SLB TDW USO WTI XME
Bullish Up/Down Volume Ratio Reversal: MOS MRO

BEARISH ALERTS


Bearish Up/Down Volume Reversal: FRO MT

Weekly DOE Crude & Products Inventory Analysis - 12/1/2010

·         Crude inventories build vs expectations of draw –Crude oil inventories increased 1.1 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 2.0 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). Crude oil inventories are now sitting at 359.7 mmbbls, which are 5.8% above last year and 10.6% above the five-year average. It seems like supply/demand fundamentals have taken a back seat as crude was buoyed by Chinese economic data this morning that showed a large increase in factory orders, while numbers out of the Euro zone point to the fact that its manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in 4 months in November. European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet also signalled officials may be willing to step up their response to the Euro zone debt crisis. In addition, US private sector jobs surged in November with the largest monthly increase in three years.

·         Gasoline inventories build vs expectations of draw –Gasoline inventories rose 0.6 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 1.3 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). Inventories of gasoline are now sitting at 210.2 mmbbls, which are 1.8% below last year and 3.4% above the five-year average.

·         Distillates draw below expectations –Inventories of distillates decreased 0.2 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 1.5 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). Distillate inventories are now sitting at 158.1 mmbbls, which are 4.6% below last year and 15.2% above the five-year average.

·         Refinery utilization decreases –Refinery utilization was down 2.9% last week to 82.6% and compares to utilization of 79.7% last year and the five-year average of 86.9%.

Technical Trade Alerts 11/30/2010

BULLISH ALERTS


MACD Cross: BHI
Bullish Up/Down Slope Ratio Reversal: WLL

BEARISH ALERTS


21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: ENI RDC
Stochastic Cross: POT

Technical Trade Alerts - 11/29/2010

BULLISH ALERTS


MACD Cross: INT
Price Is Up > 5% and Volume Is > 200%: SPN
Stochastic Cross: FRO NE

BEARISH ALERTS: None

Technical Trading Alerts 11/24/2010

BULLISH ALERTS


MACD Cross: HOC NOV TGA XME
Stochastic Cross: ATLS BUCY

BEARISH ALERTS:

Up/Down Volume Ratio Slope Reversal: PBR

Weekly DOE Crude & Product Inventory Analysis 11/23/2010

·         Crude inventories build vs expectations of draw– Crude oil inventories increased 1.0 mmbbls last week, compared with expectations for a 2.0 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). Crude oil inventories are now sitting at 358.6 mmbbls, which is 6.2% above last year and 10.0% above the five-year average. 

·         Gasoline inventories build vs expectations of draw – Gasoline inventories rose 1.9 mmbbls last week, compared with expectations for a 1.3 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). Inventories of gasoline are now sitting at 209.6 mmbbls, which is 0.2% below last year and 4.0% above the five-year average.

·         Distillates draw below expectations– Inventories of distillates decreased 0.5 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 1.5 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). Distillate inventories are now sitting at 158.3 mmbbls, which is 5.2% below last year and 15.5% above the five-year average.

·         Refinery utilization increases – Refinery utilization was up 1.7% last week to 85.5% and compares to utilization of 80.3% last year and the five-year average of 86.6%.

Weekly DOE Natural Gas Storage Analysis 11/23/2010

Withdrawal slightly greater than expectations – The EIA reported a natural gas withdrawal of 6 bcf, slightly greater than expectations (as per Bloomberg) for a 1 bcf withdrawal but less than the five-year average of a 13 bcf withdrawal. For the comparable week last year, the EIA reported an injection of 2 bcf. 

Storage levels still at record highs – Total storage now sits at 3,837 bcf, or 0.1% above last year’s levels for the comparable week of 3,835 bcf, and 9.5% above the five-year average of 3,503 bcf.

Cooler outlook ahead – Over the past week, the U.S. reported gas-home heating degree days of 131, ~10% below the five-year average of 146, but ~16% above last year’s level of 113. Cooler weather is expected across much of the U.S. which should bode well for near-term natural gas demand. 

Technical Trade Alerts - 11/23/2010

BULLISH ALERTS


MACD Cross: KMP

BEARISH ALERTS


21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: STO

Technical Trade Alerts - 11/22/2010

BULLISH ALERTS


21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: CHK DRC
MACD Cross: ESV HOC PCX
Price Is Up >5% and Volume Is > 200%: TSO
Bullish Up/Down Volume Ratio Slope Reversal: IVN

BEARISH ALERTS: None

Massey CEO Faces Showdown - WSJ.com

Massey CEO Faces Showdown - WSJ.com

Technical Trade Alerts - 11/19/2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving avg. Cross: HOS
21-Day/50-Day Moving avg. Cross: MMR
MACD Cross: ANR ASH CAM CLR CXO EOG KBR MMR NOV OIH PXP WLL WLT
Price Is Up>5% and Volume Is >200%: WLT
Stochastic Cross: CRK

BEARISH ALERTS: None

Is Massey Energy Saleable?

On October 20, 2010, The Wall street Journal broke the story that Massey (MEE) may be considering strategic options (read, "sale of the company") in the wake of the April mine explosion that killed 29 miners. In the ensuing days, the media was full of rumors as to who might be looking to buy MEE including the rival Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) and an Indian company.  An analyst report claimed MEE may be worth $60 per share in a buyout; there was talk of ANR having already submitted a bid.

I went long in MEE stock and options after the news and I am sporting a nice profit, but I am beginning to wonder if the expectations of a sale is realistic. For one thing, recently, the company's CEO stated that MEE might be looking to acquire other coal companies and despite all the takeover smoke, I have not seen any fire yet. The basis for my lingering doubts about MEE's attractiveness are as follows: 

1. The board of Massey is operating from a position of weakness, not strength because of uncertainty with the pending investigation of the Upper Big Branch mine disaster where 29 miners died.  It does not appear that safety concerns are over at Massey. The company announced it would close its underground mines  to conduct safety training.  

2. Central Appalachia (CAPP) is a very challenging environment in which to operate with much stricter environmental regulations, safety oversight, rapidly worsening geology, and limited pricing power because of low natural gas prices. The major U.S. coal producers all fully recognize the challenges facing CAPP producers and have been strategically underweighting CAPP for a decade.  Peabody Energy (BTU) spun off Patriot Coal several years ago for the above reasons.  Arch Coal (ACI) gave away its high-cost CAPP mines in exchange for giving away the legacy liabilities of those mines.  CONSOL Energy (CNX) has resisted the temptation to acquire CAPP reserves and, instead, made a major purchase of shale gas reserves earlier this year. Given all these considerations, are these companies now going to switch course simply because Massey's board is now reportedly a more willing seller?

3. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) is the only company that is likley to bid for MEE since it has a preference for growth through acquisitions. However, ANR has diluted its exposure to Central Appalachia with the purchase of Foundation Coal.  Since about 75% of MEE's shipments are thermal coal, ANR is unlikely to acquire MEE at much of a premium based on ANR's view that the CAPP thermal coal market is in a long-term structrual decline.

4. Major global mining companies, which also have been mentioned as potential buyers, may not be attracted to MEE. These companies are usually interested in world-class deposits producing global seaborne commodities.  Massey has over 60 mines serving dozens of local customers. This would be difficult to manage from overseas and the operating synergies would be lacking to justify a takeover premium. And even further, these companies would need strong operating skills to take over MEE's mines. Since 2004, MEE has never hit its production and cost targets! These metrics are very important for a mining company since pricing is usually out of its control.

5. Finally, given the aforementioned risks and uncertainties facing CAPP producers, could long-term debt financing be obtained on acceptable terms to get potential private equity buyers interested in Massey? 

Massey's CEO, Mr. Blankenship, may be onto something though: All this takeover talk has stoked the MEE shares to almost $50 from the mid-30s, giving him a more valuable currency in his stock. Then again, the price of all small cap producers have recently jumped in the wake of the Walter Energy's bid for Canada's Western Coal, eroding some of Mr. Blankenship's purchasing power. Watch your positions carefully.

Technical Trade Alerts - 11/18/2010

BULLISH ALERTS


MACD Cross: CBI FRO FST FTI NFX
Stochastic Cross: DNR FCX IPI NXY OIL OKE SU USO
Up/Down Volume Ratio Slope Reversal: CRZO

BEARISH ALERTS: None

Weekly DOE Natural Gas Storage Analysis 11/18/2010

        

Injection slightly below expectations – The EIA reported a natural gas injection of 3 bcf, slightly below market expectations (as per Bloomberg) of 8 bcf and the five-year average of 10 bcf. For the comparable week last year, the EIA reported an injection of 20 bcf. 

Storage levels set record highs – Total storage now sits at 3,843 bcf, or 0.3% above last year’s record high for the comparable week of 3,831 bcf, and 9.3% above the five-year average of 3,516 bcf.

Cooler outlook ahead – Over the past week, the U.S. reported gas-home heating degree days of 108, ~4% below the five-year average of 112, but ~17% above last year’s level of 92. Cooler weather is expected across much of the U.S. which should be good for near-term natural gas demand. 

Technical Trade Alerts - 11/17/2010

BULLISH ALERTS


21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: PVA
Stochastic Cross: BHI CCJ CF CHK DO E EQT HES MOS REP

BEARISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: TSL
MACD Cross: SHAW
Price Is Down > 5% and Volume Is > 200%: FSLR

Weekly DOE Crude & Product Inventory Analysis 11/17/2010

·         Crude draw larger than expected – Crude oil inventories decreased 7.3 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for no change (per Bloomberg) in inventories. Crude oil inventories are now sitting at 357.6 mmbbls, which is 6.2% above last year and 9.9% above the five-year average. 

·         Gasoline inventories fall more than expected – Gasoline inventories fell 2.6 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 0.8 mmbbls (per Bloomberg) withdrawal. Inventories of gasoline are now sitting at 207.7 mmbbls, which is 0.7% below last year and 3.3% above the five-year average.

·         Distillates draw less than expected – Inventories of distillates decreased 1.1 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 2.0 mmbbls withdrawal (per Bloomberg). Distillate inventories are now sitting at 158.8 mmbbls, which is 5.1% below last year but 16.2% above the five-year average.

·         Refinery utilization increases – Refinery utilization was up 1.6% last week to 84.0% which is 4.6% above last year and 1.3% below the five-year average.

Technical Trade Alerts - 11/16/2010

BULLISH ALERTS


Stochastic Cross: CAM CXO ESV SCCO TLM XEL

BEARISH ALERTS


21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: NEE

Technical Trade Alerts - 11/15/2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-day/21-Day Bullish Moving Avg. Cross: HAL NXY
MACD Cross: MDU OKE
Price Is Up >5% and Volume Is > 200%: BUCY JOYG
Bullish Up/Down Volume Ratio Slope Reversal: BUCY HK PXP XME

BEARISH ALERTS: None

Technical Trade Alerts - 11/12/2010

Bullish Alerts


10-Day/21-Day Moving Abg. Cross:  CVX RIG
MACD Cross: NXY

Bearish Alerts


MACD Cross: TSL
Price Down > 10% and Volume Is > 200%: TSL
Stochastic Cross: CLB

Technical Trading Alerts 11/10/2010

BULLISH ALERTS:


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: ANR CVE OXY SU
MACD Cross: HAL

BEARISH ALERTS: None

Weekly DOE Natural Gas Storage Analysis 11/10/2010

Storage Levels Surpass Record

Injection slightly above expectations – The EIA reported a natural gas injection of 19 bcf, slightly below expectations (as per Bloomberg) of 24 bcf. For the comparable week, injections last year were 25 bcf with the five-year average injections at 30 bcf. Total storage now sits at 3,840 bcf, 0.8% above last year’s level of 3,809 bcf, and 9.8% above the five-year average of 3,498 bcf. 

Storage levels surpass record levels set in 2009 – The 19 bcf injection this week puts us above the record storage levels set in late November 2009. Looking ahead, the start of the winter drawdown season is upon us and below average temperatures are forecasted for most of the United States over the next week. 

Weekly DOE Crude & Product Inventory Analysis 11/10/2010

·         Crude draw higher than expected – Crude oil inventories decreased 3.3 mmbbls last week, much lower than market expectations for a 1.5 mmbbls build (per Bloomberg). Crude oil inventories are now sitting at 364.9 mmbbls, which is 8.1% above last year and 12.5% above the five-year average.                               

·         Gasoline inventories fall more than expected – Gasoline inventories fell 2.0 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 1.0 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). Inventories of gasoline are now sitting at 210.3 mmbbls, which is 0.2% below last year and 4.7% above the five-year average.        

·         Distillates see larger than expected draw – Inventories of distillates decreased 5.0 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 2.0 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). The draw on distillates due to higher demand may be a welcome sign of an improving economy in the U.S. Distillate inventories are now sitting at 159.9 mmbbls, which is 4.7% lower than last year and 16.2% above the five-year average.         

·         Refinery utilization increases slightly – Refinery utilization was up 0.6% last week to 82.4% which is 2.5% above last year and 2.7% below the five-year average.

Exxon Stays Firm on Natural-Gas Bet - WSJ.com

Exxon Stays Firm on Natural-Gas Bet - WSJ.com

Technical Trade Alerts - 11/9/2010

BULLISH ALERTS:


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: ATLS COG CRK CRZO DNR FLR FST FWLT PVA PXD WFT WLL

MACD Cross ANR APL COP HK RIG

Price Is Up > 5% and Volume Is > 200%: APL ATLS CRZO EQT MDR NFG

Up/Down Volume Ratio Reversal: CVX ECA SU

BEARISH ALERTS


Stochastic Cross: CLB

Weekly Coal Review 11/10/2010

Power generation totaled 70.3k GWh last week, up 1.5% YoY with Heating Degree Days registering 43 days, 7 less than last year while Cooling Degree Days came in at 13 days, 4 better than last year. Weekly coal shipments totaled 20.4 mln tons (+4.2% YoY). Citigroup estimates that coal stockpiles rose 1 mln tons WoW and now stand at 166-168 mln tons. According to Platts' survey, physical PRB declined $0.20/ton to $13.20/ton while other basins stayed steady.

Technical Trade Alerts - 11/8/2010

Bullish Alerts:


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: ACI APA DVN EQT HP JEC JOYG NE PDE

MACD Cross: ASH ATLS ATPG CNX CRZO CSIQ DO

Price Is Up >5% And Volume Is > 200%: ANR ASH CCJ ROSE

Bearish Alerts: None

Oil Drillers With Fastest-Growing Earnings: OAS, VTG, ME, ATW, VQ, and KOG : Stocks In Focus : Small Cap Stocks and Penny Stocks For Big Returns - SmallCap Network

Oil Drillers With Fastest-Growing Earnings: OAS, VTG, ME, ATW, VQ, and KOG : Stocks In Focus : Small Cap Stocks and Penny Stocks For Big Returns - SmallCap Network

OPEC: Global oil demand rising, with marked upswing in Asia - Oil & Gas Journal

OPEC: Global oil demand rising, with marked upswing in Asia - Oil & Gas Journal

StreetInsider.com - With Oil Breaking Out, Buy Select Oil Stocks - Goldman Sachs

StreetInsider.com - With Oil Breaking Out, Buy Select Oil Stocks - Goldman Sachs

Technical Trade Alerts - 11/7/2010

Bullish Alerts:


10-Day/21-Day Bullish Moving Avg. Cross: BP CLR CNQ ME PBR ROSE SGY UPL
MACD Cross: BUCY EPD EQT FCX JOYG MUR PXD RES SCCO SFY TCK TSL VALE
Price Is Up > 5% and Volume Is >200%: FWLT MEE ROSE

Bearish Alerts: None

ETF DAILY NEWS � Swimming In Crude Oil? Record High Inventory Will Continue To Build (USO, OIL, DBO, UCO, DBE, USL, DTO, SCO, DNO, OLO, BNO, SZO, UHN, OIH)

ETF DAILY NEWS � Swimming In Crude Oil? Record High Inventory Will Continue To Build (USO, OIL, DBO, UCO, DBE, USL, DTO, SCO, DNO, OLO, BNO, SZO, UHN, OIH)

Technical Trade Alerts - 11/4/2010

Bullish Alerts:
10 Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: E IVN  PXP SWN USO VALE VLO XME XOP

MACD Cross: APA BEXP CAM CHK COG CVE DNR DRQ DVN E ESV FST HP JEC NE NFG NFX OIH OXY PDE PWE RIO SGY SU TS VLO WFT XLE XME XOP

Price Is Up> 5% and Volume Is >200%: APA BHP CSIQ CXO DNR SU

Up/Down Volume Ratio Slope Reversal: ATLS BBL CF EMN JOYG

Bearish Alerts: None

Weekly DOE Natural Gas Storage Analysis

Storage levels inch closer to 2009 highs

Injection slightly above expectations – The EIA reported a natural gas injection of 67 bcf, slightly above expectations (as per Bloomberg) of 64 bcf. For the comparable week, injections last year were 29 bcf with the five-year average injections at 26 bcf. Total storage now sits at 3,821 bcf, 1% above last year’s level of 3,784 bcf, and 10% above the five-year average of 3,468 bcf. 

Storage levels inch closer to record levels set in 2009 – The 67 bcf injection this week puts us only 16 bcf below record storage levels set in late November 2009. Looking ahead, above average temperatures forecasted for the eastern consuming regions should dominate the below average temperatures forecasted for the western consuming regions. As a result, next week’s storage numbers may indeed surpass the all time natural gas storage record set in 2009.

Technical Trading Alerts 11/3/2010

Bullish Alerts:
10 Day/21 Day Moving Avg. Cross: CXO XCO
MACD Cross: BHP BP CBI CNQ ERF FTI HES TOT USO
Price Up > 5% and Volume > 200%: CLNE
Up/Down Volume Ratio Slope reversal: CLNE ERF WLT

Bearish Alerts: None

Weekly DOE Crude & Product Inventory Analysis

Crude rises on larger than expected build

·         Crude build slightly above expectations – Crude oil inventories increased 2.0 mmbbls last week, above market expectations for a 1.5 mmbbls build (per Bloomberg). Crude oil inventories are now sitting at 368.2 mmbbls, which is 9.6% above last year and 13.8% above the five-year average. 

·         Gasoline inventories drawn more than expected– Gasoline inventories fell 2.7 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for inventories to remain unchanged (per Bloomberg). Inventories of gasoline are now sitting at 212.3 mmbbls, which is 1.9% above last year and 5.7% above the five-year average.

·         Distillates see larger draw than expected – Inventories of distillates decreased 3.6 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 1.0 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). Distillate inventories are now sitting at 164.9 mmbbls, which is 1.5% lower than last year and 19.5% above the five-year average.

·         Refinery utilization shows a slight decline– Refinery utilization fell 1.9% last week to 81.8% which is 1.2% above last year and 3.0% below the five-year average.

Technical Trading Alerts 11/2/2010

Bullish Alert

10-day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: BEXP JRCC KBR RRC

MACD Cross: BBL CCJ CLR CXO MDR PVA PXP RS SWN TLM UPL XOM

Price Is Up>5% and Volume Is>t; 200%: None

Stochastic Cross: COP CVX

Up/Down Volume Ratio Slope reversal: JRCC TLM TOT XLB

Bearish Alerts: None

Near Resistance:

Oil Field Services DO GLBL IO PDC TTI

E & P ATPG BEXP COG CPE CRK CRT ENP HK KWK PQ SD

Integrated/Refiners ALJ FTO ROC VLO WNR

Mid-Stream/Tankers AGL CPLP NAT SGU TLP XTXI

Coal & Mining CMC FCX

Alternative Energy APWR ASTI CSIQ DSTI FAN HOKU KWT LDK PBW SPIR SPWRA TAN WFR

E & C EME

Over Resistance:

Oil Field Services HERO PDS TS

E & P DNR FST GMXR TLM UNG UPL

Integrated/Refiners E STO

Mid-Stream/Tankers APL DHT FRO SFL TNK

Coal & Mining ANR CENX JOYG PCX STLD TCK USU

Alternative Energy TSL YGE

E & C MDR SHAW

Near Support

Oil Field Services

E & P

Integrated/Refiners

Mid-Stream/Tankers

Coal & Mining

Alternative Energy

E & C

Under Support

Oil Field Services

E & P

Integrated/Refiners

Mid-Stream/Tankers

Coal/Mining/Metals

Alternative Energy

E & C

XCO's Management Valuation

It appears that the management is trying to buy the company at the low end of the valuation they presented to the public in July 2010. Please see pages 7-8 in Investor Meeting Slides, which shows the valuation range to be $25.43-$36.94 with a mid-point of $31. I am long XCO.

Technical Trading Alerts 11/1/2010

Bullish Alert

10-day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: FRO

MACD Cross: BTU KBR RRC URS XCO

Price Is Up>5% and Volume Is > 200%: XCO

Stochastic Cross: SPN XOP

Bearish Alerts:

21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: SHAW

Stochastic Cross: PBR

Up/Down Volume ratio reversal: CLB

Near Resistance:

Oil Field Services GLBL HERO IO PDC RDC TS TTI

E & P ATPG BEXP CPE CRT ENP FST GMXR PQ SD TLM UPL WTI

Integrated/Refiners E FTO STO WNR

Mid-Stream/Tankers AGL CPLP DHT SGU TLP TNK XTXI

Coal & Mining JOYG TCK

Alternative Energy APWR ASTI DSTI FAN FEED HOKU KWT LDK PBW SPIR SPWRA TAN TSL YGE

E & C MDR SHAW

Over Resistance:

Oil Field Services PDS

E & P CRK DNR HK PXE RRC UNG

Integrated/Refiners REP TOT

Mid-Stream/Tankers APL FRO MMLP RGNC SFL

Coal & Mining ANR CENX PCX USU

Alternative Energy None

E & C None

Near Support

Oil Field Services BAS DTE ENG FTK GLBL HLX OIS PDC PKD RIG

E & P BEXP BTE DNR DPTR EP FCG GMXR KWK NXY OIL SD TLM USO VNR WMB

Integrated/Refiners BP HOC SNP WNR

Mid-Stream/Tankers ATO CPLP DHT GEL GLP KMR NGLS NJR PNY SFL SGU SUG XTXI

Coal & Mining AA ANR IMN IVN KOL PCX RIO SCCO TCK TIE USU

Alternative Energy HOKU KWT MGPI SMG WFR

E & C CBI EME ENG MDR SHAW URS

Under Support

Oil Field Services CPX IO NE TTI TTEK WFT

E & P BBG CPE CVE REXX WTI

Integrated/Refiners ALJ DOW SU VLO

Mid-Stream/Tankers CLMT CPNO DEP NAT SPH TRP

Coal/Mining/Metals NUE

Alternative Energy LDK PBW PZD TAN

E & C None

Who Is Next After EXCO?

EXCO (XCO) has received a $20.50/share offer from its management. XCO has interest in two of hottest natural gas plays in the U.S.: The Haynesville Shale and the Marcellus Shale. Below is a list of companies also involved in these hot E&P plays. They are performing real well this morning on hopes that bids may develop for them:

Haynesville Shale:

CHK HK SWN GMXR CRK GDP SM FST EOG

Marcellus Shale:

CHK EOG RRC PVA SWN COG EQT

Technical Trading Alerts 10/28/2010

Bullish Alerts:

21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: CAM

MACD Cross: CAM IOC XEC

Bearish Alerts: None

Weekly DOE Natural Gas Storage Analysis

Storage levels inch closer to 2009 highs

Injection slightly above expectations – The EIA reported a natural gas injection of 71 bcf, slightly below expectations (as per Bloomberg) of 74 bcf. For the comparable week, injections last year were 25 bcf with the five-year average injections at 45 bcf. Total storage now sits at 3,754 bcf, only 0.1% below last year’s level of 3,756 bcf, and 9.1% above the five-year average of 3,442 bcf.

Storage levels inch closer to record levels set in 2009 – The 71 bcf injection this week puts us only 83 bcf below record storage levels set in late November 2009. Looking ahead, above average temperatures forecasted for key consuming regions means we could potentially reach new highs in the coming weeks.

Technical Trading Alerts 10/27/2010

Bullish Alerts:

MACD Cross: HOS LINE OII SPN

Price Is Up > 5% & the Volume is > 200%: NBR OII

Stochastic Cross: CHK CRK DVN EOG FST RIG

STR WMB

Bullish Up/Down Vol. Ratio Slope Reversal: BTU LINE NOV OII VLO

Bearish Alerts: None

Technical Trading Alerts 10/26/2010

Bullish Alerts:

10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: FSLR

MACD Cross: MOS NOV

Price Up More Than 5% and Volume Greater Than 200%: NOV

Stochastic Cross: APA ATLS BP HP NE

Bearish Alerts: None

NuStar Trumps Expectations - Yahoo! Finance

NuStar Trumps Expectations - Yahoo! Finance

Trade Entry -MEE Risk Reversal Option Play

Last week, Wall Street Journal reported that Massey Energy (MEE) is exploring strategic alternatives including the sale of the company. This morning, Stiffel Nicalaus published a research piece stating that Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) may bid for MEE and the bid could be as high as $62. So far the stock has hit a 52-week low of $25.85 and 52-week high of $54.80. Massey shares nosedived following the April 5 explosion at its Upper Big Branch mine in West Virginia, which killed 29 miners. It closed at $54.69 that day and hit a low of $26.31 on July 2. The WSJ article mentioned that MEE could be in due diligence phase of a strategic move as early as November.

Today, I initiated a costless risk reversal spread to take advantage of the expected sale of MEE:

Trade Details Cost Basis

Sell 2 contracts of MEE 2010 DEC 32.00 PUT @ $0.40 ($80.00)

Buy 1 contract of MEE 2010 DEC 50.00 CALL @ $0.75 $75.00

Total Cost ($5.00) (credit)

Breakeven Price: $31.97

As long as I am willing to buy the stock at $30 (in case there is no deal), this spread provides me $5 credit initially and unlimited upside should MEE's price exceeds $50 by December 18, 2010. Statistically, there is about 7.6% probability of MEE's price being $32 or lower by the expiration date. So, I am willing to take the risk of buying the stock at this price. Also, this price level corresponds to the congestion area from which the price broke up indicating good support at this level. One thing to remember is that one would have to post margin for the Put side of the spread or cash-back the short puts ($6,400 less $5 credit).

Technical Trading Alerts 10/25/2010

Bullish Alerts:

MACD Cross: APC FSLR NBR SLB

Price Up > 5% & Volume > 200%: APC

Stochastic Cross: MMR

Up/Down Volume Ratio Slope Reversal: APC ATLS CCJ

Bearish Alerts: None

US drilling remains flat - Oil & Gas Journal

US drilling remains flat - Oil & Gas Journal

MARKET WATCH: Energy prices continue to see-saw - Oil & Gas Journal

MARKET WATCH: Energy prices continue to see-saw - Oil & Gas Journal

Trade Entry - CLB

Trade: Opened to sell CLB Nov 75 put for $0.70.

Trade Rationale: CLB is the premier "high-tech" company in the oil field services industry and is Well Positioned for the upturn. The company has a strong position in North American shales plays which I expect to remain the focus for U.S. and Canadian Independents, and also broad exposure to the international markets which I believe are in the early stages of a multi-year recovery that is poised to accelerate in 2011. In addition, Core's technologies are geared towards understanding reservoirs and improving production - services that are in increasing demand as the global reserve base continues to age. The stock has been overly punished because of the flattish North American revenues due to capacity constraints. Support level for the price is around $76/sh. If the put is not exercised, I will have a naked yield of 0.8% in 29 days.

[Trade Entry] Bearish on Bonds With a Credit Back Spread

[Trade Entry] Bearish on Bonds With a Credit Back Spread

Technical Trading Alerts 10/21/2010

Bullish Alerts:

Stochastic Cross: DO NBL SM

Up/Down Volume Ratio Slope reversal: MEE STO

Bearish Alerts:

10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: NRG TIE

MACD Cross: ETR

Weekly DOE Natural Gas Storage Analysis

Injection slightly above expectations – The EIA reported a natural gas injection of 93 bcf, slightly above expectations (as per Bloomberg) of 88 bcf. For the comparable week, injections last year were 23 bcf with the five-year average injections at 54 bcf. Total storage now sits at 3,683 bcf, or 1.3% below last year’s level of 3,731 bcf, but 8.4% above the five-year average of 3,397 bcf.

Futures curve continues to fall – Over the past six weeks, injections have averaged 30% higher than the five-year average, despite more normalized weather. With the potential prospect of gas-on-gas competition, not only near month NYMEX gas prices continue to fall, but also the full futures curve as well, down 7% from six weeks ago and 26% from last year.

Technical Trading Alerts 10/21/2010

Bullish Alerts:

Price Up More Than 5% and Volume is Greater Than 200%: MEE

Stochastic Cross: CHK CRZO FWLT PXP SWC

Bullish Up/Down Volume Ratio Slope Reversal: EXC KSU MDU OGE ROSE SU XEL XOM

Bearish Alerts: None

Weekly DOE Crude & Product Inventory Analysis

Crude inventories increase slightly below expectations – Crude oil inventories increased 0.7 mmbbls last week, slightly below market expectations for a 1.5 mmbbls build (per Bloomberg). Crude oil inventories are now sitting at 361.2 mmbbls, which is 6.5% above last year and 11.8% above the five-year average.

Gasoline inventories also up slightly – Gasoline inventories rose 1.1 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 1.5 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). Inventories of gasoline are now sitting at 219.3 mmbbls, which is 6.0% above last year and 9.6% above the five-year average.

Distillate demand showing continued improvement – Inventories of distillates decreased 2.1 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 1.0 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). As the chart below shows, distillate demand has steadily been increasing since July with demand now approaching 5-year averages. Distillate inventories are now sitting at 170.1 mmbbls, which is 0.1% above last year and 22.6% above the five-year average. ·

Refinery utilization edges up – Refinery utilization rose 0.6% last week to 82.9% which is 1.4% above last year and 1.5% below the five-year average.

Daily Energy & Resources Digest 10/20/2010

Encana (ECA) - This morning Encana reported its Q3/10 results. Encana reported production of 554 MBOE/d (3.3 Bcfe/d) for Q3/10, slightly behind our expectation of 565 MBOE/d or 3.4 Bcfe/d. Cash flow of $1.1 billion or $1.54 per diluted share was above our estimate of $973 million or $1.32 per share, and ahead of the consensus estimate of $1.39, mainly on the back of lower than expected operating costs and an income tax recovery. Citing completion delays in the U.S., Encana has reduced its capex budget for the year to $4.8 billion from $5.0 billion, resulting in a 50 MMcfe/d decrease to 2010 production guidance to 3.315 Bcfe/d. The revised CFPS guidance range has been narrowed to $5.95 - $6.20 from $5.95 - $6.50 previously.

Kodiak (KOG) expands Bakken footprint with $110 million asset grab. The company purchased ~14,500 net acres and four producing wells (~500 net boe/d plus existing infrastructure) for $99 million in cash and $11 million of stock (2.75 million shares at $4 per share). Excluding the acquired production, this implies about $7,600/acre; if assuming $100,000 per flowing boe, the acquisition price comes out to ~$4,100/acre. Where's the cash coming from? With Kodiak's drilling success to date, it was able to expand its credit facility from $20 million to $50 million and it also received commitments for a second facility with $40 million of availability. With the extra capacity plus the $74 million of proceeds from the recent equity offering, our model has Kodiak exiting 4Q with $65 million of the $90 million drawn. Looking at the newly acquired acreage, 11,700 acres are located in McKenzie County (core) with the remaining 2,800 acres located in Williams County, just north of Brigham's (BEXP/$19.61/Strong Buy) Rough Rider position. The Three Forks has yet to be de-risked around this land, and therefore we estimate it only adds 34 Bakken locations to inventory (Kodiak estimates 60). Bottom line: While the new land gives Kodiak some additional running room in the Bakken, the transaction is neutral to NAV analysis and the stock is still one of the more expensive names in the group, particularly as smaller companies continue to get squeezed on margin by service costs.

Comstock (CRK) - Yesterday Comstock gave an update on operations in the Haynesville and Bossier, announcing that the number of drilled wells awaiting completion has now jumped to 26. The news comes as no surprise as the company already had 17 wells awaiting completion and that the backlog is likely continue to grow throughout the end of the year due to a tight pressure pumping services market. Comstock plans to drill another 10 wells in the Haynesville during 4Q, but has secured additional pumping services that will allow it to reduce its uncompleted inventory to an estimated 22 wells by year-end (in addition to securing a dedicated frac crew for 2011). To further alleviate its uncompleted backlog, Comstock will be releasing one of its six Haynesville rigs and may move one of the remaining five to the Eagle Ford in 2011.

Crosstex Energy LP (XTEX) and Crosstex Energy Inc. (XTXI) announce reinstatement of distribution/dividend payout. The quarterly distribution on Crosstex Energy LP's common units will be $0.25 per unit beginning with the 3Q10 distribution (payable 11/12/10). The quarterly dividend on Crosstex Energy Inc.'s common stock will be $0.07 per share beginning with the 3Q10 distribution (payable 11/12/10). The announcement is in line with our forecast, but the reinstatement arrived one quarter ahead of the partnership's original expectations to reinstate the distribution and dividend in 4Q10 (payable January 2011). Given that roughly 75% of the partnership's cash flow is now fee-based, it appears that these new distribution/dividend levels are sustainable.

Eagle Rock Energy Partners (EROC) announces startup of Phoenix processing plant. Eagle Rock Partners announced that its Texas Panhandle, Phoenix gas processing plant is operational. The cryogenic plant will initially add 50 MMcfe/d of processing capacity to the Texas Panhandle area. Additionally, the partnership announced that it closed its previously announced acquisition of gas gathering facilities in Wheeler and Hemphill counties. Lastly, the partnership's upstream borrowing base has been increased by $10 million to $140 million.

Complete (CPX) - For the third consecutive quarter, Complete had no problem topping the Street's estimate for earnings. Complete put up "clean" earnings of $0.42 per share, well above both our assumption and the Street at $0.29 and $0.31, respectively. Reported revenue saw a sequential uptick of 16%, which topped our forecast by 5%. Most of this strength came from the completion and production segment as the company reported successfully completing its first frac job in the Eagle Ford during the quarter. The same segment rallied big as adjusted EBITDA surged 28% sequentially from an increase in horizontal and oily related activity to add an additional $0.06 per share above our forecast. Additionally, drilling services hit its stride from an uptick in utilization and accounted for two cents of the beat. During the quarter, the company added an additional ~40,000 hydraulic hp to its fleet. Expect to see more of this in 4Q10; recall that last quarter Complete expected to add an additional 100,000 horsepower to its fleet by year's end.