Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Monday, December 20, 2010
Friday, December 17, 2010
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Warmer weather forecast – The National Weather Service is predicting milder temperatures for key consuming regions of the United States.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Monday, December 13, 2010
Friday, December 10, 2010
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
- Lowers 2011 world oil demand growth by 10K bpd, to +1.43M bpd y/y; sees US 2011 natural gas production +2%.
- Expects the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to average about $84 per barrel this winter (October 1 to March 31), more than $6 higher than the average price last winter. Projected WTI prices rise to $89 per barrel by the end of 2011, a $2 per barrel increase from last month's Outlook, as U.S. and global economic conditions improve. EIA's forecast assumes U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) grows 2.7 percent in 2010 and 2.1 percent in 2011, while world real GDP (weighted by oil consumption) grows by 4.0 percent and 3.2 percent, in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
- Expects regular-grade motor gasoline retail prices to average $2.88 per gallon this winter, 22 cents per gallon higher than last winter. Projected retail diesel fuel prices average $3.14 per gallon this winter, an increase of 35 cents per gallon over last winter, while residential heating oil prices average $3.17 per gallon this winter. In 2011, higher crude oil prices combined with higher refiner margins push annual average prices for motor gasoline and diesel fuel to $3.00 and $3.23 per gallon, respectively.
- Natural gas working inventories end November 2010 at 3.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), slightly less than last year's record-setting end-of-November level. The projected Henry Hub natural gas spot price averages $4.37 per million Btu (MMBtu) for 2010, a $0.42-per-MMBtu increase over the 2009 average. EIA expects the Henry Hub spot price to average $4.33 per MMBtu in 2011.
- OPEC crude oil production will increase by 0.3 and 0.4 million bbl/d in 2010 and 2011, respectively, similar to last month's Outlook, to accommodate increasing world oil consumption. Projected non-crude liquids increase by 0.7 million bbl/d in both 2010 and 2011. OPEC surplus capacity should remain close to 5 million bbl/d, compared with 4.3 million in 2009 and 1.5 million in 2008.
- Non-OPEC Supply will grow by just over 1.0 million bbl/d to an average 51.5 million bbl/d in 2010 - the largest year-over-year increase since 2002. The increase in total non-OPEC supply for the year is the result of higher production in the United States, Brazil, China, and Russia. However, non-OPEC supply falls by 280,000 bbl/d in 2011. The decline in non-OPEC supply in 2011 would be only the third time in the last 15 years that non-OPEC supplies fall year-over-year.
- Projected total U.S. liquid fuels consumption increases by 320,000 bbl/d (1.7 percent) to 19.09 million bbl/d in 2010, which is about 60,000 bbl/d higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. A year-over-year decline in total liquid fuels consumption averaging 40,000 bbl/d in the first quarter of 2010 was followed by a year-over-year rise averaging 610,000 bbl/d in the second and third quarters, led by increases in motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil consumption.
- Domestic crude oil production, which increased by 410,000 bbl/d in 2009, increases by 140,000 bbl/d in 2010 and then falls by 30,000 bbl/d to 5.47 million bbl/d in 2011. The 2011 forecast includes declines of 50,000 bbl/d and 180,000 bbl/d in Alaska and the Federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM), respectively, and a 190,000-bbl/d increase in lower-48 non-GOM production. Ethanol production, which averaged 710,000 bbl/d in 2009, increases to an average of 860,000 bbl/d in 2010 and 890,000 bbl/d in 2011.
- This month's Outlook, for the first time, reflects recent changes in the Form EIA-857 monthly natural gas survey methodology in the forecasts for residential and commercial natural gas consumption. The new survey methodology should not significantly change reported total annual consumption volumes. However, EIA expects significant changes in the seasonality of reported residential and commercial sector natural gas consumption from historical reporting norms as the improved reporting on the EIA-857 leads to more accurate monthly reports. For example, first quarter 2011 forecast residential plus commercial consumption is 1.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) lower in this forecast compared with last month's Outlook, while fourth quarter 2011 consumption is 3.8 Bcf/d higher.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Thursday, December 2, 2010
10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: APC CF DOW MUR SHAW XOM
MACD Cross: ACI APA APC BTU CBI CCJ CNQ COP DBC DIG DOW
EQT FCX FWLT GDP HES HK HOS HP NFX OIH PVA RIG SE
SU TCK VALE VLO XLB XLE XOP
21 Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: TOT
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: APD CNQ EMN HOS INT TDW
MACD Cross: APD BEXP COG CVE DD EMN ERF JOYG MRO MUR OIL OIS PX
PXD SFY SLB TDW USO WTI XME
Bullish Up/Down Volume Ratio Reversal: MOS MRO
Bearish Up/Down Volume Reversal: FRO MT
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Monday, November 29, 2010
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Monday, November 22, 2010
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Friday, November 19, 2010
10-Day/21-Day Moving avg. Cross: HOS
21-Day/50-Day Moving avg. Cross: MMR
MACD Cross: ANR ASH CAM CLR CXO EOG KBR MMR NOV OIH PXP WLL WLT
Price Is Up>5% and Volume Is >200%: WLT
Stochastic Cross: CRK
BEARISH ALERTS: None
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Monday, November 15, 2010
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: ATLS COG CRK CRZO DNR FLR FST FWLT PVA PXD WFT WLL
MACD Cross ANR APL COP HK RIG
Price Is Up > 5% and Volume Is > 200%: APL ATLS CRZO EQT MDR NFG
Up/Down Volume Ratio Reversal: CVX ECA SU
Stochastic Cross: CLB
Monday, November 8, 2010
Oil Drillers With Fastest-Growing Earnings: OAS, VTG, ME, ATW, VQ, and KOG : Stocks In Focus : Small Cap Stocks and Penny Stocks For Big Returns - SmallCap Network
10-Day/21-Day Bullish Moving Avg. Cross: BP CLR CNQ ME PBR ROSE SGY UPL
MACD Cross: BUCY EPD EQT FCX JOYG MUR PXD RES SCCO SFY TCK TSL VALE
Price Is Up > 5% and Volume Is >200%: FWLT MEE ROSE
Bearish Alerts: None
Saturday, November 6, 2010
ETF DAILY NEWS � Swimming In Crude Oil? Record High Inventory Will Continue To Build (USO, OIL, DBO, UCO, DBE, USL, DTO, SCO, DNO, OLO, BNO, SZO, UHN, OIH)
Thursday, November 4, 2010
10 Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: E IVN PXP SWN USO VALE VLO XME XOP
MACD Cross: APA BEXP CAM CHK COG CVE DNR DRQ DVN E ESV FST HP JEC NE NFG NFX OIH OXY PDE PWE RIO SGY SU TS VLO WFT XLE XME XOP
Price Is Up> 5% and Volume Is >200%: APA BHP CSIQ CXO DNR SU
Up/Down Volume Ratio Slope Reversal: ATLS BBL CF EMN JOYG
Bearish Alerts: None
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Monday, November 1, 2010
Friday, October 29, 2010
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Storage levels inch closer to 2009 highs
Injection slightly above expectations – The EIA reported a natural gas injection of 71 bcf, slightly below expectations (as per Bloomberg) of 74 bcf. For the comparable week, injections last year were 25 bcf with the five-year average injections at 45 bcf. Total storage now sits at 3,754 bcf, only 0.1% below last year’s level of 3,756 bcf, and 9.1% above the five-year average of 3,442 bcf.
Storage levels inch closer to record levels set in 2009 – The 71 bcf injection this week puts us only 83 bcf below record storage levels set in late November 2009. Looking ahead, above average temperatures forecasted for key consuming regions means we could potentially reach new highs in the coming weeks.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Monday, October 25, 2010
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Friday, October 22, 2010
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Injection slightly above expectations – The EIA reported a natural gas injection of 93 bcf, slightly above expectations (as per Bloomberg) of 88 bcf. For the comparable week, injections last year were 23 bcf with the five-year average injections at 54 bcf. Total storage now sits at 3,683 bcf, or 1.3% below last year’s level of 3,731 bcf, but 8.4% above the five-year average of 3,397 bcf.
Futures curve continues to fall – Over the past six weeks, injections have averaged 30% higher than the five-year average, despite more normalized weather. With the potential prospect of gas-on-gas competition, not only near month NYMEX gas prices continue to fall, but also the full futures curve as well, down 7% from six weeks ago and 26% from last year.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Crude inventories increase slightly below expectations – Crude oil inventories increased 0.7 mmbbls last week, slightly below market expectations for a 1.5 mmbbls build (per Bloomberg). Crude oil inventories are now sitting at 361.2 mmbbls, which is 6.5% above last year and 11.8% above the five-year average.
Kodiak (KOG) expands Bakken footprint with $110 million asset grab. The company purchased ~14,500 net acres and four producing wells (~500 net boe/d plus existing infrastructure) for $99 million in cash and $11 million of stock (2.75 million shares at $4 per share). Excluding the acquired production, this implies about $7,600/acre; if assuming $100,000 per flowing boe, the acquisition price comes out to ~$4,100/acre. Where's the cash coming from? With Kodiak's drilling success to date, it was able to expand its credit facility from $20 million to $50 million and it also received commitments for a second facility with $40 million of availability. With the extra capacity plus the $74 million of proceeds from the recent equity offering, our model has Kodiak exiting 4Q with $65 million of the $90 million drawn. Looking at the newly acquired acreage, 11,700 acres are located in McKenzie County (core) with the remaining 2,800 acres located in Williams County, just north of Brigham's (BEXP/$19.61/Strong Buy) Rough Rider position. The Three Forks has yet to be de-risked around this land, and therefore we estimate it only adds 34 Bakken locations to inventory (Kodiak estimates 60). Bottom line: While the new land gives Kodiak some additional running room in the Bakken, the transaction is neutral to NAV analysis and the stock is still one of the more expensive names in the group, particularly as smaller companies continue to get squeezed on margin by service costs.