HEARD ON THE STREET: China Rate Rise Signals Shift to Slower Growth - WSJ.com

HEARD ON THE STREET: China Rate Rise Signals Shift to Slower Growth - WSJ.com

Wind’s 2010 Top Ten: Bust and Building, Coming and Going : Greentech Media

Wind’s 2010 Top Ten: Bust and Building, Coming and Going : Greentech Media

A Lower-Carbon Route to Replacing Oil - NYTimes.com

A Lower-Carbon Route to Replacing Oil - NYTimes.com

Oil Industry Increases Spending on Search for Energy - WSJ.com

Oil Industry Increases Spending on Search for Energy - WSJ.com

Expert Says $5 Gas En Route - For What It's Worth - Comcast.net

Expert Says $5 Gas En Route - For What It's Worth - Comcast.net

Technical Trading Alerts 12.28.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross; RRC
21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross  JOE PWE
MACD Cross: SWN

BEARISH ALERTS: None.

FACTBOX-Five facts about rare earth elements | Energy & Oil | Reuters

FACTBOX-Five facts about rare earth elements | Energy & Oil | Reuters

Technical Trading Alerts 12.22.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: CF
MACD Cross:  ANR ATPG CNQ CNX DVN ERF FTO PCX PXD VALE XCO XOP

BEARISH ALERTS: None

DOE Crude Oil & Products Inventory Report Analysis 12.22.2010

·         Larger than expected crude inventory draw – Crude oil inventories decreased 5.3 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 3.4 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). Crude oil inventories are now sitting at 340.7 mmbbls, which is 4.0% above last year and 7.6% above the five-year average. 

·         Distillate draw exceed expectations – Inventories of distillates decreased 0.6 mmbbls last week, compared with flat market expectations (per Bloomberg). Distillate inventories are now sitting at 160.7 mmbbls, which is 0.4% below last year, but 17.6% above the five-year average.

·         Gasoline inventory build higher than expected – Gasoline inventories rose 2.4 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 1.5 mmbbls build (per Bloomberg). Inventories of gasoline are now sitting at 217.2 mmbbls, which is 0.4% above last year and 4.8% above the five-year average.        

·         Refinery utilization largely unchanged – Refinery utilization remained largely unchanged last week at 87.7% (was 88.0% the week prior), but remains 7.7% above last year and 1.2% above the five-year average.

Technical Trading Alerts - 12.21.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: MRO
MACD Cross: ACI BHP CRZO CVE DIG FST JRCC NBL SE SM TSO USO WLL
Stochastic Cross: WTI

BEARISH ALERTS: None

Technical Trading Alerts 12.21.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: STO
MACD Cross: CF MOO VLO
Price Is Up > 5% and Volume Is > 200%: CHK
Stochastic Cross: NBR PVA RIG SGY
UP/Down Slope Ratio Reversal: FST NBL TLM

BEARISH ALERTS: None.

Top Picks in Coal - Barrons.com

Top Picks in Coal - Barrons.com

Commodities Likely to earn Their Keep in the Coming Year

From Financial Times http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aa92b884-087d-11e0-80d9-00144feabdc0.html

Technical Trading Alerts 12.17.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: CHK
MACD Cross: CBI XEC
Stochastic Cross: CPX HK PTEN UPL WTI
Up/Down Volume Ratio Reversal: BHP COP CVX FWLT NBR SU

BEARISH ALERTS: None

Weekly DOE Natural Gas Inventory Analysis - 12.16.2010

Withdrawal in line with expectations – The EIA reported a natural gas withdrawal of 164 bcf, right in line with expectations (as per Bloomberg) of 165 bcf. For the comparable week last year, the storage withdrawal was 185 bcf with the five-year average withdrawal at 153 bcf.

Storage levels tracking 2009 – The 164 bcf withdrawal this week puts us only 35 bcf below storage levels set in late December 2009. Total storage levels now sit at 3,561 bcf, still well above the five-year average of 3,240 bcf.

Warmer weather forecast – The National Weather Service is predicting milder temperatures for key consuming regions of the United States.

Oil Futures Increase After Crude Inventories Drop the Most in Eight Years - Bloomberg

Oil Futures Increase After Crude Inventories Drop the Most in Eight Years - Bloomberg

Fertilizer Inventory Analysis 12.15.10

Both PotashCorp and Agrium provided monthly market report updates last evening outlining inventory and pricing data for fertilizer nutrients in North America. While potash and urea inventories increased from October levels, ending inventories for both crop nutrients remained well below historical levels. On the phosphates front, DAP and MAP inventories continued to decline falling significantly below historical levels. Highlights from the report include:

 

Potash:

§  North American ending inventory in November increased by 182,000t from October (an increase of around 13%) however, potash inventory was still down approximately 22% when compared to the five year average.

Urea:

§  North American urea inventories climbed 47,000t from the previous month, but were still approximately 13% below the 5 year average inventory level.

DAP/MAP:

§  DAP/MAP inventories tightened in November dropping 17% from already record lows in October. Inventories were 39% below levels in November 2009, and trail the 5 year average by approximately 50%.

§  DAP inventories made up the bulk of the drop and now sit 57% below the 5 year average, while MAP inventories are 39% below the 5 year average.

Argus Media :: News Story

Gas Surpassing US Coal Power Generation Argus Media :: News Story

Does China Face a 'Peak Coal' Threat? - NYTimes.com

Does China Face a 'Peak Coal' Threat? - NYTimes.com

Technical Trading Alerts 12.14.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: PWE
Stochastic Cross: ANR EOG IOC WTI
Up/Down Ratio Slope Reversal: ATPG DBA

BEARISH ALERTS: None

FT.com / Commodities - Global boom in commodities capex

FT.com / Commodities - Global boom in commodities capex

FT.com / Companies / Mining - Boost for suppliers as miners dig deep

FT.com / Companies / Mining - Boost for suppliers as miners dig deep

Technical Trading alerts 12.13.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


MACD Cross: HP JOYG PWE
Price Is Up >5% & Volume Is >200%: FST GDP
Stochastic Cross: CRK ERF SWN
Up/Down Volume Ratio Reversal: BLL NXY

BEARISH ALERTS


Price Is Down >5% & Volume Is >200%: AMSC

Shale gas supply expected to keep US prices low in 2011 - Oil & Gas Journal

Shale gas supply expected to keep US prices low in 2011 - Oil & Gas Journal

US shale and unconventional activity continues to push rig counts higher

US shale and unconventional activity continues to push rig counts higher

OPEC set for no change despite $90 oil | Energy & Oil | Reuters

OPEC set for no change despite $90 oil | Energy & Oil | Reuters

DOE Natural Gas Storage Analysis 12.09.10

Withdrawal slightly greater than expectations – The EIA reported a natural gas withdrawal of 89 bcf, in line with expectations (as per Bloomberg) for a 85 bcf withdrawal and the five-year average withdrawal of 90 bcf. For the comparable week last year, the EIA reported a withdrawal of 64 bcf. 

Storage levels still near record highs – Total storage now sits at 3,725 bcf, or 1.5% below last year’s levels for the comparable week of 3,781 bcf, and 9.8% above the five-year average of 3,393 bcf.

Estimate surprises – As expected, price movements have largely been related to estimate surprises but the negative correlation is not perfect given other external factors such as weather, which weigh-in.

Technical Trading Alerts 12/08/2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: ATW NXY TS URS XOM

BEARISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: PNY POT
Stochastic Cross: MMR

Oil demand back to pre-recession peaks - WoodMac | Energy & Oil | Reuters

Oil demand back to pre-recession peaks - WoodMac | Energy & Oil | Reuters

Investors Pile Into Commodities - WSJ.com

Investors Pile Into Commodities - WSJ.com

Oil Industry Urged to Transform Approach to Safety - WSJ.com

Oil Industry Urged to Transform Approach to Safety - WSJ.com

FT.com / Companies / Oil & Gas - US independents to buy into shale oil boom

FT.com / Companies / Oil & Gas - US independents to buy into shale oil boom

FT.com / Commodities - Crude oil tipped to bubble over $100 a barrel

FT.com / Commodities - Crude oil tipped to bubble over $100 a barrel

Technical Trading alerts 12.7.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-day Moving avg. Cross: COP DNR SU VALE
MACD  Cross: ATW BBL BP PDE SCCO UPL

BEARISH ALERTS


Stochastic Cross: E REP

EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Summary

• Lowers 2011 world oil demand growth by 10K bpd, to +1.43M bpd y/y; sees US 2011 natural gas production +2%. 
• Expects the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to average about $84 per barrel this winter (October 1 to March 31), more than $6 higher than the average price last winter. Projected WTI prices rise to $89 per barrel by the end of 2011, a $2 per barrel increase from last month's Outlook, as U.S. and global economic conditions improve. EIA's forecast assumes U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) grows 2.7 percent in 2010 and 2.1 percent in 2011, while world real GDP (weighted by oil consumption) grows by 4.0 percent and 3.2 percent, in 2010 and 2011, respectively. 
• Expects regular-grade motor gasoline retail prices to average $2.88 per gallon this winter, 22 cents per gallon higher than last winter. Projected retail diesel fuel prices average $3.14 per gallon this winter, an increase of 35 cents per gallon over last winter, while residential heating oil prices average $3.17 per gallon this winter. In 2011, higher crude oil prices combined with higher refiner margins push annual average prices for motor gasoline and diesel fuel to $3.00 and $3.23 per gallon, respectively. 
• Natural gas working inventories end November 2010 at 3.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), slightly less than last year's record-setting end-of-November level. The projected Henry Hub natural gas spot price averages $4.37 per million Btu (MMBtu) for 2010, a $0.42-per-MMBtu increase over the 2009 average. EIA expects the Henry Hub spot price to average $4.33 per MMBtu in 2011. 
• OPEC crude oil production will increase by 0.3 and 0.4 million bbl/d in 2010 and 2011, respectively, similar to last month's Outlook, to accommodate increasing world oil consumption. Projected non-crude liquids increase by 0.7 million bbl/d in both 2010 and 2011. OPEC surplus capacity should remain close to 5 million bbl/d, compared with 4.3 million in 2009 and 1.5 million in 2008. 
• Non-OPEC Supply will grow by just over 1.0 million bbl/d to an average 51.5 million bbl/d in 2010 - the largest year-over-year increase since 2002. The increase in total non-OPEC supply for the year is the result of higher production in the United States, Brazil, China, and Russia. However, non-OPEC supply falls by 280,000 bbl/d in 2011. The decline in non-OPEC supply in 2011 would be only the third time in the last 15 years that non-OPEC supplies fall year-over-year. 
• Projected total U.S. liquid fuels consumption increases by 320,000 bbl/d (1.7 percent) to 19.09 million bbl/d in 2010, which is about 60,000 bbl/d higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. A year-over-year decline in total liquid fuels consumption averaging 40,000 bbl/d in the first quarter of 2010 was followed by a year-over-year rise averaging 610,000 bbl/d in the second and third quarters, led by increases in motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil consumption.
• Domestic crude oil production, which increased by 410,000 bbl/d in 2009, increases by 140,000 bbl/d in 2010 and then falls by 30,000 bbl/d to 5.47 million bbl/d in 2011. The 2011 forecast includes declines of 50,000 bbl/d and 180,000 bbl/d in Alaska and the Federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM), respectively, and a 190,000-bbl/d increase in lower-48 non-GOM production. Ethanol production, which averaged 710,000 bbl/d in 2009, increases to an average of 860,000 bbl/d in 2010 and 890,000 bbl/d in 2011.  
• This month's Outlook, for the first time, reflects recent changes in the Form EIA-857 monthly natural gas survey methodology in the forecasts for residential and commercial natural gas consumption. The new survey methodology should not significantly change reported total annual consumption volumes. However, EIA expects significant changes in the seasonality of reported residential and commercial sector natural gas consumption from historical reporting norms as the improved reporting on the EIA-857 leads to more accurate monthly reports. For example, first quarter 2011 forecast residential plus commercial consumption is 1.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) lower in this forecast compared with last month's Outlook, while fourth quarter 2011 consumption is 3.8 Bcf/d higher.

Technical Trading alerts 12.6.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: CRK FCX GDP IVN OIL TLM USO
21-Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: GDP
MACD Cross: BHP DVN ESV JEC RIO TLM

BEARISH ALERTS: None

Technical Trading alerts 12.3.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: CVE DD ERF PETD PTEN XLB
MACD Cross: ATPG CF CVX DBA DNR FST MON MOO NBL NBR NXY OKE
                       PETD PXP RRC TS URS XEC

BEARISH ALERTS: None

Technical Trading alerts 12.2.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: APC CF DOW MUR SHAW XOM
MACD Cross: ACI APA APC BTU CBI CCJ CNQ COP DBC DIG DOW
                       EQT FCX FWLT GDP HES HK HOS HP NFX OIH PVA RIG SE
                       SU TCK VALE VLO XLB XLE XOP

BEARISH ALERTS


21 Day/50-Day Moving Avg. Cross: TOT

Weekly DOE Natural Gas Inventory Analysis - 12.02.2010

Withdrawal slightly greater than expectations – The EIA reported a natural gas withdrawal of 23 bcf, lower than expectations (as per Bloomberg) for a 29 bcf withdrawal but less than the five-year average of a 43 bcf withdrawal. For the comparable week last year, the EIA reported an injection of 2 bcf. 

Storage levels still at record highs – Total storage now sits at 3,814 bcf, or 0.6% below last year’s levels for the comparable week of 3,837 bcf, and 10.0% above the five-year average of 3,467 bcf.

High coal prices shoring up gas prices – Appalachian coal prices surged dramatically yesterday to new 2010 highs, and this coal move is helping to shore up gas prices on the basis of a coal-gas switching in regards to power generation. Coal prices yesterday were up 3%, which is pretty impressive volatility in the normally sedate coal market, resulting in our implicit coal-gas switching price escalating to $4.52 as of last night’s close.

EIA 914 data for September Shows Solid Growth – Total Lower 48 volumes of 66.33bcfpd were up +480mmcfpd (+0.7%) MTM and +5bcfpd (+8.1%) YOY. Onshore Lower 48 volumes of 60.37bcfpd were up +680mmcfpd (+1.1%) MTM and +5.77bcfpd (+10.4%) YOY.

Technical Trading alerts 12.1.2010

BULLISH ALERTS


10-Day/21-Day Moving Avg. Cross: APD CNQ EMN HOS INT TDW
MACD Cross: APD BEXP COG CVE DD EMN ERF JOYG MRO MUR OIL OIS PX
                        PXD SFY SLB TDW USO WTI XME
Bullish Up/Down Volume Ratio Reversal: MOS MRO

BEARISH ALERTS


Bearish Up/Down Volume Reversal: FRO MT

Weekly DOE Crude & Products Inventory Analysis - 12/1/2010

·         Crude inventories build vs expectations of draw –Crude oil inventories increased 1.1 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 2.0 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). Crude oil inventories are now sitting at 359.7 mmbbls, which are 5.8% above last year and 10.6% above the five-year average. It seems like supply/demand fundamentals have taken a back seat as crude was buoyed by Chinese economic data this morning that showed a large increase in factory orders, while numbers out of the Euro zone point to the fact that its manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in 4 months in November. European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet also signalled officials may be willing to step up their response to the Euro zone debt crisis. In addition, US private sector jobs surged in November with the largest monthly increase in three years.

·         Gasoline inventories build vs expectations of draw –Gasoline inventories rose 0.6 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 1.3 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). Inventories of gasoline are now sitting at 210.2 mmbbls, which are 1.8% below last year and 3.4% above the five-year average.

·         Distillates draw below expectations –Inventories of distillates decreased 0.2 mmbbls last week, compared with market expectations for a 1.5 mmbbls draw (per Bloomberg). Distillate inventories are now sitting at 158.1 mmbbls, which are 4.6% below last year and 15.2% above the five-year average.

·         Refinery utilization decreases –Refinery utilization was down 2.9% last week to 82.6% and compares to utilization of 79.7% last year and the five-year average of 86.9%.