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Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Weekly DOE Crude & Product Inventory Analysis

· Crude inventory largely in line –Crude inventories decreased 0.4 mmbbls last week, largely in line with market expectations (per Bloomberg) for a 0.7 mmbbls draw. Crude oil inventories are now sitting at 357.9 mmbbls, which is 5.8% above last year and 12.7% above the five-year average.

· Distillate inventories move lower – Inventories of distillates countered expectations last week, decreasing 1.3 mmbbls, compared with market expectations for a 0.3 mmbbls build (per Bloomberg). Distillate inventories are now sitting at 173.6 mmbbls, which is 1.5% above last year and 22.3% above the five-year average.

· Gasoline inventories well below expectations – Gasoline inventories fell 3.5 mmbbls last week, well below market expectations (per Bloomberg) for a 0.4 mmbbls build. Inventories of gasoline are now sitting at 222.6 mmbbls, which is 5.2% above last year and 12.1% above the five-year average.

· Refinery utilization edges lower – Refinery utilization edged down 2.0% last week to 85.8% which remains 1.2% above last year and 5.0% above the five-year average.

Shifting to demand, gasoline demand rose 6.1% from last week and is up 0.9% on a four-week moving average basis compared to the same time last year. Total petroleum demand of 19.7 MMBbls per day this week was near the high end of its recent range of 18.7 to 20.0 MMBbls per day. Total demand was up 2.8% sequentially and is up 2.8% y/y on a four-week basis. Finally, combining supply with demand, days of supply decreased 1.4 days to 40.3 days, which is 0.3 days higher than this time last year.

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